PROBABILITY






Turner, Emily                     Joplin Elementary School
921 Patricia Lane                 1-312-962-4625
Crete, IL 60417

Objectives

The student will:

1) Understand the concept of probability and the basic probability formula. 
2) Will be able to predict the possible outcomes of an event. 

Materials

Six golf balls:          Paper plates
3 yellow                 Plastic lids
2 white                  Paper fasteners
1 orange                 Colored marker


Recommended Strategies

Review the definition of probability.  Use golf balls to demonstrate the basic 
probability formula, which is, the probability of an event is the fraction of the 
total number of outcomes that cause that event to occur.  For example, if there are 3 
yellow golf balls, 2 white, and 1 orange, what is the total possible outcome or set 
of choices that can be selected? (6)  What is the probability of selecting a yellow 
ball? (3/6)  A white ball? (2/6)  An orange one? (1/6) 

The number wheel, which is made by using a paper plate, a piece of plastic for the 
pointer, and a paper fastener, can be used to demonstrate the probability of a 
particular outcome after a number of trials.  It can also be used to show the 
probability ratio, the number of outcomes, the ratio of outcomes to trials, and the 
percent of outcomes to trials for each number on the wheel. 

To further enhance the learning of the above objectives, the student can complete an 
experiment at home which involves tossing a coin fifty times. The same information 
that was found using the number wheel can be found in the coin experiment.